Minority Report

Northwest Hills Planning Region, CT — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Northwest Hills Planning Region.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 45°   Low 37°   Rain 96%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 14 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—32°100%
US model (GFS)45°36°86%
European model (ECMWF)45°39°100%
German model (ICON)46°40°93%
Canadian model (GEM)46°40°100%
The average45°37°96%

Friday, November 13

High 39°   Low 31°   Rain 96%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 17 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 83% against a group average of 96%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service38°30°83%
US model (GFS)38°32°95%
European model (ECMWF)40°33°100%
German model (ICON)40°33°100%
Canadian model (GEM)40°29°100%
The average39°31°96%

Saturday, November 14

High 38°   Low 29°   Rain 8%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 17 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 20% against a group average of 8%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service38°31°4%
US model (GFS)36°30°3%
European model (ECMWF)39°27°4%
German model (ICON)39°30°20%
Canadian model (GEM)36°29°11%
The average38°29°8%

Sunday, November 15

High 40°   Low 31°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 5 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°31°5%
US model (GFS)39°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)40°32°2%
German model (ICON)41°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)39°32°0%
The average40°31°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.