Minority Report

Oakland, CA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Alameda County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 69°   Low 53°   Rain 6%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 21 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 21% against a group average of 6%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service70°55°21%
US model (GFS)70°50°2%
European model (ECMWF)69°53°0%
German model (ICON)68°55°3%
Canadian model (GEM)69°53°2%
The average69°53°6%

Friday, November 13

High 61°   Low 53°   Rain 100%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service63°50°99%
US model (GFS)59°51°100%
European model (ECMWF)62°54°100%
German model (ICON)61°56°100%
Canadian model (GEM)60°55°100%
The average61°53°100%

Saturday, November 14

High 63°   Low 52°   Rain 25%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 8 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service65°51°21%
US model (GFS)63°51°28%
European model (ECMWF)63°52°29%
German model (ICON)63°54°25%
Canadian model (GEM)61°53°24%
The average63°52°25%

Sunday, November 15

High 63°   Low 54°   Rain 94%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 9 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service64°50°92%
US model (GFS)66°53°89%
European model (ECMWF)62°56°94%
German model (ICON)60°55°98%
Canadian model (GEM)61°53°95%
The average63°54°94%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.