Minority Report

Oakland, MD — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Garrett County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 48°   Low 36°   Rain 82%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 54 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 46% against a group average of 82%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—31°46%
US model (GFS)46°36°64%
European model (ECMWF)47°38°100%
German model (ICON)49°38°100%
Canadian model (GEM)49°39°100%
The average48°36°82%

Friday, November 13

High 37°   Low 28°   Rain 54%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 85 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 8% against a group average of 54%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service36°27°38%
US model (GFS)36°28°8%
European model (ECMWF)38°31°61%
German model (ICON)38°29°68%
Canadian model (GEM)39°26°93%
The average37°28°54%

Saturday, November 14

High 36°   Low 28°   Rain 51%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 63 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 91% against a group average of 51%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service36°28°55%
US model (GFS)36°28°36%
European model (ECMWF)36°28°47%
German model (ICON)36°28°28%
Canadian model (GEM)36°26°91%
The average36°28°51%

Sunday, November 15

High 37°   Low 31°   Rain 54%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 56 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 86% against a group average of 54%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service39°29°55%
US model (GFS)36°30°30%
European model (ECMWF)38°33°57%
German model (ICON)38°32°44%
Canadian model (GEM)36°29°86%
The average37°31°54%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.