Minority Report

Oberlin, KS — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Decatur County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 58°   Low 33°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°0%
US model (GFS)58°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)57°34°0%
German model (ICON)57°35°0%
Canadian model (GEM)59°35°0%
The average58°33°0%

Friday, November 13

High 52°   Low 32°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°30°0%
US model (GFS)50°32°0%
European model (ECMWF)53°36°0%
German model (ICON)51°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)54°29°0%
The average52°32°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 49°   Low 33°   Rain 25%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 26 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 41% against a group average of 25%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°32°26%
US model (GFS)53°29°15%
European model (ECMWF)46°36°20%
German model (ICON)51°33°23%
Canadian model (GEM)46°35°41%
The average49°33°25%

Sunday, November 15

High 47°   Low 37°   Rain 30%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 31 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 13% against a group average of 30%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°31°13%
US model (GFS)43°41°29%
European model (ECMWF)49°40°33%
German model (ICON)45°39°33%
Canadian model (GEM)48°35°44%
The average47°37°30%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.