Minority Report

Ogden, UT — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Weber County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 58°   Low 36°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—42°0%
US model (GFS)62°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)56°34°0%
German model (ICON)58°34°0%
Canadian model (GEM)56°35°0%
The average58°36°0%

Friday, November 13

High 62°   Low 41°   Rain 65%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 62 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 98% against a group average of 65%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service63°44°98%
US model (GFS)65°44°36%
European model (ECMWF)62°37°75%
German model (ICON)61°41°50%
Canadian model (GEM)60°38°67%
The average62°41°65%

Saturday, November 14

High 50°   Low 38°   Rain 98%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 3 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°36°98%
US model (GFS)53°37°97%
European model (ECMWF)47°39°97%
German model (ICON)51°38°100%
Canadian model (GEM)48°43°100%
The average50°38°98%

Sunday, November 15

High 53°   Low 35°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°38°0%
US model (GFS)52°35°1%
European model (ECMWF)55°32°0%
German model (ICON)53°35°0%
Canadian model (GEM)51°34°0%
The average53°35°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.