Minority Report

Orange, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Orange County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 78°   Low 56°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—50°0%
US model (GFS)79°57°0%
European model (ECMWF)76°62°0%
German model (ICON)78°55°0%
Canadian model (GEM)77°57°0%
The average78°56°0%

Friday, November 13

High 73°   Low 51°   Rain 0%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service74°48°0%
US model (GFS)73°50°0%
European model (ECMWF)69°58°0%
German model (ICON)71°50°0%
Canadian model (GEM)76°51°0%
The average73°51°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 65°   Low 48°   Rain 3%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 10 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service66°49°3%
US model (GFS)66°45°1%
European model (ECMWF)63°53°10%
German model (ICON)63°43°3%
Canadian model (GEM)67°48°0%
The average65°48°3%

Sunday, November 15

High 67°   Low 52°   Rain 73%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 9°, rain spread 28 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 89% against a group average of 73%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service70°50°75%
US model (GFS)71°52°61%
European model (ECMWF)61°55°89%
German model (ICON)62°52°61%
Canadian model (GEM)70°51°80%
The average67°52°73%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.