Minority Report

Oregon, IL — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Ogle County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 45°   Low 34°   Rain 25%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 61 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 61% against a group average of 25%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—31°0%
US model (GFS)44°32°3%
European model (ECMWF)44°36°61%
German model (ICON)45°34°3%
Canadian model (GEM)46°36°57%
The average45°34°25%

Friday, November 13

High 42°   Low 30°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°27°2%
US model (GFS)41°31°1%
European model (ECMWF)42°31°0%
German model (ICON)42°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)42°29°0%
The average42°30°1%

Saturday, November 14

High 44°   Low 27°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°25°0%
US model (GFS)44°31°1%
European model (ECMWF)44°28°0%
German model (ICON)45°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)44°22°0%
The average44°27°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 47°   Low 26°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°26°0%
US model (GFS)47°31°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°28°0%
German model (ICON)47°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)47°17°0%
The average47°26°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.