Minority Report

Oroville, CA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Butte County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 76°   Low 50°   Rain 25%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 38 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 45% against a group average of 25%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—53°45%
US model (GFS)78°48°7%
European model (ECMWF)74°51°14%
German model (ICON)77°53°33%
Canadian model (GEM)77°44°28%
The average76°50°25%

Friday, November 13

High 61°   Low 51°   Rain 100%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service60°47°100%
US model (GFS)62°52°100%
European model (ECMWF)60°53°100%
German model (ICON)63°54°100%
Canadian model (GEM)61°51°100%
The average61°51°100%

Saturday, November 14

High 62°   Low 51°   Rain 11%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 17 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service63°48°19%
US model (GFS)62°50°12%
European model (ECMWF)61°51°2%
German model (ICON)62°54°8%
Canadian model (GEM)61°51°16%
The average62°51°11%

Sunday, November 15

High 61°   Low 52°   Rain 96%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 8 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°48°96%
US model (GFS)64°52°95%
European model (ECMWF)61°53°92%
German model (ICON)58°54°100%
Canadian model (GEM)61°50°95%
The average61°52°96%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.