Minority Report

Oswego, NY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Oswego County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 45°   Low 36°   Rain 76%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 59 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 41% against a group average of 76%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°41%
US model (GFS)44°37°69%
European model (ECMWF)45°38°100%
German model (ICON)44°37°93%
Canadian model (GEM)47°39°76%
The average45°36°76%

Friday, November 13

High 41°   Low 35°   Rain 42%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 46 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 16% against a group average of 42%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°29°42%
US model (GFS)39°35°16%
European model (ECMWF)41°37°62%
German model (ICON)40°34°43%
Canadian model (GEM)40°38°48%
The average41°35°42%

Saturday, November 14

High 43°   Low 36°   Rain 74%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 49 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 49% against a group average of 74%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°31°58%
US model (GFS)42°37°49%
European model (ECMWF)44°38°98%
German model (ICON)43°37°75%
Canadian model (GEM)42°38°90%
The average43°36°74%

Sunday, November 15

High 43°   Low 38°   Rain 54%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 61 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 90% against a group average of 54%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°32°57%
US model (GFS)42°39°47%
European model (ECMWF)44°38°90%
German model (ICON)43°40°49%
Canadian model (GEM)42°40°29%
The average43°38°54%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.