Minority Report

Paducah, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Cottle County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 76°   Low 45°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—45°0%
US model (GFS)76°49°0%
European model (ECMWF)75°47°0%
German model (ICON)77°44°0%
Canadian model (GEM)75°42°0%
The average76°45°0%

Friday, November 13

High 61°   Low 45°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 4 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°45°1%
US model (GFS)62°47°0%
European model (ECMWF)60°46°0%
German model (ICON)60°44°0%
Canadian model (GEM)62°41°4%
The average61°45°1%

Saturday, November 14

High 55°   Low 44°   Rain 89%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 14°, rain spread 19 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 89%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°47°84%
US model (GFS)64°41°81%
European model (ECMWF)50°45°100%
German model (ICON)50°44°92%
Canadian model (GEM)55°42°90%
The average55°44°89%

Sunday, November 15

High 55°   Low 43°   Rain 74%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 16°, rain spread 62 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 31% against a group average of 74%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°41°31%
US model (GFS)64°46°81%
European model (ECMWF)51°44°90%
German model (ICON)48°44°93%
Canadian model (GEM)54°41°73%
The average55°43°74%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.