Minority Report

Panguitch, UT — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Garfield County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 59°   Low 28°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 4 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—28°4%
US model (GFS)59°25°0%
European model (ECMWF)57°34°0%
German model (ICON)58°27°0%
Canadian model (GEM)62°24°0%
The average59°28°1%

Friday, November 13

High 53°   Low 33°   Rain 71%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 50 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 98% against a group average of 71%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°31°96%
US model (GFS)55°33°49%
European model (ECMWF)51°33°98%
German model (ICON)52°35°65%
Canadian model (GEM)54°31°48%
The average53°33°71%

Saturday, November 14

High 43°   Low 27°   Rain 96%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 15 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 85% against a group average of 96%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°20°85%
US model (GFS)42°29°96%
European model (ECMWF)45°30°100%
German model (ICON)44°31°98%
Canadian model (GEM)44°26°100%
The average43°27°96%

Sunday, November 15

High 51°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 9°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°23°0%
US model (GFS)46°28°0%
European model (ECMWF)52°30°0%
German model (ICON)53°23°0%
Canadian model (GEM)55°20°0%
The average51°25°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.