Minority Report

Paterson, NJ — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Passaic County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 57°   Low 46°   Rain 98%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 5 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—41°95%
US model (GFS)56°46°97%
European model (ECMWF)55°47°100%
German model (ICON)58°48°100%
Canadian model (GEM)58°47°100%
The average57°46°98%

Friday, November 13

High 46°   Low 36°   Rain 95%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 18 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 82% against a group average of 95%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°34°95%
US model (GFS)46°37°82%
European model (ECMWF)47°36°100%
German model (ICON)48°36°100%
Canadian model (GEM)47°35°100%
The average46°36°95%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 34°   Rain 16%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 34 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 35% against a group average of 16%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°35°1%
US model (GFS)43°33°16%
European model (ECMWF)44°32°7%
German model (ICON)46°36°35%
Canadian model (GEM)44°34°19%
The average45°34°16%

Sunday, November 15

High 48°   Low 37°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°35°0%
US model (GFS)46°39°0%
European model (ECMWF)47°37°2%
German model (ICON)49°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)47°35°0%
The average48°37°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.