Minority Report

Pawhuska, OK — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Osage County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 64°   Low 40°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—34°0%
US model (GFS)64°40°0%
European model (ECMWF)63°42°0%
German model (ICON)63°41°0%
Canadian model (GEM)64°42°0%
The average64°40°0%

Friday, November 13

High 52°   Low 32°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°31°0%
US model (GFS)52°34°0%
European model (ECMWF)51°35°0%
German model (ICON)51°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)52°30°0%
The average52°32°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 55°   Low 31°   Rain 13%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 22 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 24% against a group average of 13%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°37°24%
US model (GFS)55°30°6%
European model (ECMWF)53°33°9%
German model (ICON)56°30°2%
Canadian model (GEM)54°26°23%
The average55°31°13%

Sunday, November 15

High 47°   Low 39°   Rain 51%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 42 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 81% against a group average of 51%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°35°48%
US model (GFS)47°41°42%
European model (ECMWF)48°42°45%
German model (ICON)45°40°39%
Canadian model (GEM)46°39°81%
The average47°39°51%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.