Minority Report

Peñuelas Municipio, PR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Peñuelas Municipio.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 87°   Low 78°   Rain 41%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 89 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 99% against a group average of 41%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—79°20%
US model (GFS)88°76°13%
European model (ECMWF)87°78°99%
German model (ICON)87°80°63%
Canadian model (GEM)86°78°10%
The average87°78°41%

Friday, November 13

High 87°   Low 79°   Rain 54%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 72 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 18% against a group average of 54%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service89°79°50%
US model (GFS)87°80°42%
European model (ECMWF)86°78°90%
German model (ICON)87°81°18%
Canadian model (GEM)83°77°72%
The average87°79°54%

Saturday, November 14

High 86°   Low 79°   Rain 58%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 63 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 93% against a group average of 58%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service89°78°30%
US model (GFS)88°80°49%
European model (ECMWF)85°78°93%
German model (ICON)86°82°32%
Canadian model (GEM)84°79°86%
The average86°79°58%

Sunday, November 15

High 87°   Low 77°   Rain 15%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 39 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 44% against a group average of 15%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service89°76°5%
US model (GFS)88°76°14%
European model (ECMWF)87°78°44%
German model (ICON)88°80°6%
Canadian model (GEM)84°75°6%
The average87°77°15%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.