Minority Report

Pearsall, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Frio County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 78°   Low 55°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—50°0%
US model (GFS)79°55°0%
European model (ECMWF)76°58°0%
German model (ICON)77°58°0%
Canadian model (GEM)79°54°0%
The average78°55°0%

Friday, November 13

High 75°   Low 50°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service75°54°0%
US model (GFS)75°52°0%
European model (ECMWF)75°51°0%
German model (ICON)75°49°0%
Canadian model (GEM)78°45°0%
The average75°50°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 73°   Low 57°   Rain 54%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 10°, rain spread 43 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 31% against a group average of 54%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service71°60°42%
US model (GFS)72°57°31%
European model (ECMWF)73°56°74%
German model (ICON)69°57°61%
Canadian model (GEM)80°55°60%
The average73°57°54%

Sunday, November 15

High 75°   Low 60°   Rain 61%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 52 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 34% against a group average of 61%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service72°55°40%
US model (GFS)76°63°34%
European model (ECMWF)75°57°80%
German model (ICON)76°61°65%
Canadian model (GEM)76°63°86%
The average75°60°61%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.