Minority Report

Petersburg, IL — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Menard County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 47°   Low 34°   Rain 13%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 41 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 41% against a group average of 13%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°4%
US model (GFS)46°34°0%
European model (ECMWF)47°38°41%
German model (ICON)47°33°8%
Canadian model (GEM)46°33°14%
The average47°34°13%

Friday, November 13

High 43°   Low 29°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 4 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°25°4%
US model (GFS)43°29°1%
European model (ECMWF)43°34°0%
German model (ICON)44°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)43°29°0%
The average43°29°1%

Saturday, November 14

High 47°   Low 26°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°26°0%
US model (GFS)46°24°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°29°0%
German model (ICON)48°27°0%
Canadian model (GEM)45°22°0%
The average47°26°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 50°   Low 27°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°27°0%
US model (GFS)51°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)49°29°0%
German model (ICON)51°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)48°17°0%
The average50°27°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.