Minority Report

Philadelphia, PA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Philadelphia County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 63°   Low 48°   Rain 90%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 27 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 73% against a group average of 90%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—41°73%
US model (GFS)62°50°79%
European model (ECMWF)61°50°100%
German model (ICON)61°50°100%
Canadian model (GEM)68°48°100%
The average63°48°90%

Friday, November 13

High 49°   Low 37°   Rain 92%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 22 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 78% against a group average of 92%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°36°89%
US model (GFS)50°35°78%
European model (ECMWF)50°37°99%
German model (ICON)50°39°95%
Canadian model (GEM)50°37°100%
The average49°37°92%

Saturday, November 14

High 46°   Low 36°   Rain 35%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 63 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 1% against a group average of 35%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°37°1%
US model (GFS)45°35°23%
European model (ECMWF)47°36°23%
German model (ICON)48°36°63%
Canadian model (GEM)42°37°64%
The average46°36°35%

Sunday, November 15

High 49°   Low 37°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°36°0%
US model (GFS)49°40°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°39°2%
German model (ICON)49°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)48°33°0%
The average49°37°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.