Minority Report

Pioche, NV — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Lincoln County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 58°   Low 35°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—41°1%
US model (GFS)56°38°0%
European model (ECMWF)57°36°0%
German model (ICON)60°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)60°32°0%
The average58°35°0%

Friday, November 13

High 52°   Low 37°   Rain 88%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 31 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 69% against a group average of 88%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°39°95%
US model (GFS)51°37°69%
European model (ECMWF)51°37°100%
German model (ICON)53°37°85%
Canadian model (GEM)52°33°91%
The average52°37°88%

Saturday, November 14

High 47°   Low 32°   Rain 85%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 57 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 43% against a group average of 85%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°33°43%
US model (GFS)47°33°87%
European model (ECMWF)49°34°100%
German model (ICON)48°30°98%
Canadian model (GEM)43°28°99%
The average47°32°85%

Sunday, November 15

High 49°   Low 32°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°37°1%
US model (GFS)48°34°0%
European model (ECMWF)51°32°0%
German model (ICON)52°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)47°26°0%
The average49°32°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.