Minority Report

Pittsboro, NC — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Chatham County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 70°   Low 46°   Rain 18%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 40 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 40% against a group average of 18%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—41°1%
US model (GFS)70°47°17%
European model (ECMWF)69°50°33%
German model (ICON)70°46°40%
Canadian model (GEM)72°47°0%
The average70°46°18%

Friday, November 13

High 57°   Low 40°   Rain 10%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 17 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 0% against a group average of 10%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service59°34°15%
US model (GFS)56°42°17%
European model (ECMWF)55°44°14%
German model (ICON)57°40°5%
Canadian model (GEM)58°42°0%
The average57°40°10%

Saturday, November 14

High 53°   Low 35°   Rain 3%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 9 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°32°0%
US model (GFS)53°36°1%
European model (ECMWF)52°39°9%
German model (ICON)53°31°3%
Canadian model (GEM)53°36°0%
The average53°35°3%

Sunday, November 15

High 55°   Low 32°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°31°0%
US model (GFS)55°34°0%
European model (ECMWF)54°37°0%
German model (ICON)58°27°0%
Canadian model (GEM)53°30°0%
The average55°32°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.