Minority Report

Ponce Municipio, PR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Ponce Municipio.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 88°   Low 78°   Rain 44%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 87 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 97% against a group average of 44%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—79°20%
US model (GFS)88°75°29%
European model (ECMWF)89°79°97%
German model (ICON)88°76°63%
Canadian model (GEM)86°80°10%
The average88°78°44%

Friday, November 13

High 88°   Low 80°   Rain 56%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 76 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 94% against a group average of 56%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service92°79°50%
US model (GFS)88°81°45%
European model (ECMWF)87°78°94%
German model (ICON)88°80°18%
Canadian model (GEM)84°81°72%
The average88°80°56%

Saturday, November 14

High 87°   Low 79°   Rain 61%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 64 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 96% against a group average of 61%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service92°78°40%
US model (GFS)88°80°52%
European model (ECMWF)86°78°96%
German model (ICON)86°81°32%
Canadian model (GEM)85°80°86%
The average87°79°61%

Sunday, November 15

High 88°   Low 76°   Rain 13%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 34 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 37% against a group average of 13%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service92°76°3%
US model (GFS)88°75°13%
European model (ECMWF)88°77°37%
German model (ICON)89°76°6%
Canadian model (GEM)85°78°6%
The average88°76°13%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.