Minority Report

Prescott, AR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Nevada County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 72°   Low 47°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—38°1%
US model (GFS)72°48°1%
European model (ECMWF)71°51°0%
German model (ICON)71°46°0%
Canadian model (GEM)73°50°0%
The average72°47°0%

Friday, November 13

High 58°   Low 38°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service59°35°0%
US model (GFS)58°41°1%
European model (ECMWF)57°42°0%
German model (ICON)57°36°0%
Canadian model (GEM)59°38°0%
The average58°38°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 56°   Low 34°   Rain 2%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 6 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°36°6%
US model (GFS)58°33°1%
European model (ECMWF)55°37°2%
German model (ICON)56°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)55°34°0%
The average56°34°2%

Sunday, November 15

High 53°   Low 40°   Rain 57%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 29 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 40% against a group average of 57%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°37°54%
US model (GFS)56°40°40%
European model (ECMWF)51°42°69%
German model (ICON)50°39°69%
Canadian model (GEM)54°41°53%
The average53°40°57%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.