Minority Report

Raleigh, NC — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Wake County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 71°   Low 47°   Rain 22%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 52 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 53% against a group average of 22%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—43°1%
US model (GFS)71°48°10%
European model (ECMWF)69°49°53%
German model (ICON)71°47°35%
Canadian model (GEM)72°49°10%
The average71°47°22%

Friday, November 13

High 58°   Low 42°   Rain 18%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 25 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 33% against a group average of 18%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service59°36°16%
US model (GFS)56°43°22%
European model (ECMWF)56°44°33%
German model (ICON)58°41°8%
Canadian model (GEM)60°44°10%
The average58°42°18%

Saturday, November 14

High 53°   Low 36°   Rain 7%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 24 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 24% against a group average of 7%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°34°0%
US model (GFS)54°36°1%
European model (ECMWF)52°38°24%
German model (ICON)53°33°3%
Canadian model (GEM)53°38°7%
The average53°36°7%

Sunday, November 15

High 55°   Low 34°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°34°0%
US model (GFS)55°41°0%
European model (ECMWF)54°37°0%
German model (ICON)58°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)53°30°0%
The average55°34°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.