Minority Report

Raton, NM — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Colfax County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 62°   Low 36°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—35°0%
US model (GFS)63°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)61°39°0%
German model (ICON)62°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)64°31°0%
The average62°36°0%

Friday, November 13

High 58°   Low 38°   Rain 11%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 53 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 53% against a group average of 11%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service59°38°53%
US model (GFS)59°39°1%
European model (ECMWF)58°40°0%
German model (ICON)57°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)58°34°0%
The average58°38°11%

Saturday, November 14

High 47°   Low 36°   Rain 69%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 62 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 33% against a group average of 69%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°35°67%
US model (GFS)48°35°70%
European model (ECMWF)43°39°95%
German model (ICON)49°37°78%
Canadian model (GEM)45°35°33%
The average47°36°69%

Sunday, November 15

High 51°   Low 34°   Rain 30%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 72 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 76% against a group average of 30%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°31°4%
US model (GFS)49°37°20%
European model (ECMWF)52°36°76%
German model (ICON)55°36°35%
Canadian model (GEM)51°30°15%
The average51°34°30%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.