Minority Report

Red Lodge, MT — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Carbon County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 58°   Low 41°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—41°0%
US model (GFS)57°43°0%
European model (ECMWF)59°36°0%
German model (ICON)60°44°0%
Canadian model (GEM)57°43°0%
The average58°41°0%

Friday, November 13

High 56°   Low 40°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°37°0%
US model (GFS)55°42°0%
European model (ECMWF)56°35°0%
German model (ICON)57°42°0%
Canadian model (GEM)53°43°0%
The average56°40°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 54°   Low 36°   Rain 5%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 20 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 20% against a group average of 5%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°35°3%
US model (GFS)53°36°2%
European model (ECMWF)55°34°0%
German model (ICON)54°38°20%
Canadian model (GEM)56°40°0%
The average54°36°5%

Sunday, November 15

High 52°   Low 35°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 6 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°35°0%
US model (GFS)52°34°0%
European model (ECMWF)53°35°0%
German model (ICON)52°33°6%
Canadian model (GEM)51°37°0%
The average52°35°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.