Minority Report

Redwood City, CA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of San Mateo County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 74°   Low 53°   Rain 6%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 20 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 20% against a group average of 6%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—55°20%
US model (GFS)75°51°5%
European model (ECMWF)72°54°0%
German model (ICON)73°53°3%
Canadian model (GEM)76°50°3%
The average74°53°6%

Friday, November 13

High 62°   Low 52°   Rain 99%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 4 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service63°50°96%
US model (GFS)61°52°100%
European model (ECMWF)60°52°100%
German model (ICON)62°56°100%
Canadian model (GEM)62°52°100%
The average62°52°99%

Saturday, November 14

High 64°   Low 50°   Rain 26%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 33 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 3% against a group average of 26%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service66°50°23%
US model (GFS)65°51°36%
European model (ECMWF)64°49°34%
German model (ICON)65°54°3%
Canadian model (GEM)63°48°33%
The average64°50°26%

Sunday, November 15

High 64°   Low 52°   Rain 92%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 9 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service65°50°95%
US model (GFS)66°53°91%
European model (ECMWF)64°53°88%
German model (ICON)62°54°97%
Canadian model (GEM)65°49°90%
The average64°52°92%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.