Minority Report

Reed City, MI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Osceola County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 43°   Low 32°   Rain 65%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 89 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 11% against a group average of 65%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—29°11%
US model (GFS)42°34°51%
European model (ECMWF)44°34°90%
German model (ICON)43°32°73%
Canadian model (GEM)41°31°100%
The average43°32°65%

Friday, November 13

High 40°   Low 29°   Rain 10%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 1°, rain spread 20 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 23% against a group average of 10%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service40°26°23%
US model (GFS)39°32°9%
European model (ECMWF)39°28°3%
German model (ICON)40°29°5%
Canadian model (GEM)40°30°9%
The average40°29°10%

Saturday, November 14

High 42°   Low 32°   Rain 7%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 11 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°27°5%
US model (GFS)40°34°7%
European model (ECMWF)40°33°6%
German model (ICON)44°32°3%
Canadian model (GEM)42°34°14%
The average42°32°7%

Sunday, November 15

High 44°   Low 31°   Rain 2%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 5 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°25°2%
US model (GFS)45°35°1%
European model (ECMWF)44°31°1%
German model (ICON)45°33°0%
Canadian model (GEM)43°30°5%
The average44°31°2%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.