Minority Report

Reserve, NM — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Catron County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 66°   Low 31°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 4 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—29°4%
US model (GFS)65°35°0%
European model (ECMWF)66°33°0%
German model (ICON)65°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)67°26°0%
The average66°31°1%

Friday, November 13

High 61°   Low 35°   Rain 52%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 45 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 75% against a group average of 52%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service62°37°56%
US model (GFS)62°37°35%
European model (ECMWF)58°34°75%
German model (ICON)60°36°30%
Canadian model (GEM)61°29°62%
The average61°35°52%

Saturday, November 14

High 51°   Low 35°   Rain 52%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 55 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 22% against a group average of 52%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°29°43%
US model (GFS)50°39°22%
European model (ECMWF)55°38°75%
German model (ICON)49°39°45%
Canadian model (GEM)47°29°77%
The average51°35°52%

Sunday, November 15

High 59°   Low 31°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service60°29°0%
US model (GFS)58°36°0%
European model (ECMWF)61°35°2%
German model (ICON)59°33°2%
Canadian model (GEM)58°22°0%
The average59°31°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.