Minority Report

Rexburg, ID — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Madison County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 57°   Low 30°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—33°0%
US model (GFS)57°24°0%
European model (ECMWF)58°32°0%
German model (ICON)58°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)55°31°0%
The average57°30°0%

Friday, November 13

High 59°   Low 35°   Rain 21%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 67 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 71% against a group average of 21%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service60°38°71%
US model (GFS)59°31°5%
European model (ECMWF)61°39°4%
German model (ICON)60°32°13%
Canadian model (GEM)56°38°14%
The average59°35°21%

Saturday, November 14

High 47°   Low 36°   Rain 73%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 25 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 57% against a group average of 73%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°30°71%
US model (GFS)47°36°57%
European model (ECMWF)48°36°82%
German model (ICON)45°38°75%
Canadian model (GEM)47°38°81%
The average47°36°73%

Sunday, November 15

High 49°   Low 29°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°29°0%
US model (GFS)48°32°0%
European model (ECMWF)50°34°0%
German model (ICON)50°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)48°22°2%
The average49°29°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.