Minority Report

Richmond, IN — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Wayne County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 50°   Low 39°   Rain 61%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 61 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 61%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—37°59%
US model (GFS)49°40°39%
European model (ECMWF)51°40°59%
German model (ICON)50°41°50%
Canadian model (GEM)49°39°100%
The average50°39°61%

Friday, November 13

High 42°   Low 33°   Rain 42%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 67 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 86% against a group average of 42%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°27°25%
US model (GFS)41°32°19%
European model (ECMWF)44°37°51%
German model (ICON)43°34°30%
Canadian model (GEM)41°35°86%
The average42°33°42%

Saturday, November 14

High 44°   Low 29°   Rain 2%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°32°1%
US model (GFS)44°31°2%
European model (ECMWF)44°29°2%
German model (ICON)44°30°3%
Canadian model (GEM)44°25°2%
The average44°29°2%

Sunday, November 15

High 47°   Low 34°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 5 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°30°0%
US model (GFS)46°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)44°38°0%
German model (ICON)50°37°0%
Canadian model (GEM)45°27°5%
The average47°34°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.