Minority Report

Rising Sun, IN — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Ohio County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 54°   Low 41°   Rain 46%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 0°, rain spread 59 points, 3 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 76% against a group average of 46%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—40°29%
US model (GFS)54°39°17%
European model (ECMWF)54°42°76%
Canadian model (GEM)54°41°63%
The average54°41°46%

Friday, November 13

High 45°   Low 35°   Rain 45%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 49 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 16% against a group average of 45%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°29°42%
US model (GFS)45°33°16%
European model (ECMWF)47°40°65%
Canadian model (GEM)44°38°56%
The average45°35°45%

Saturday, November 14

High 47°   Low 30°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 2 points, 4 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°30°0%
US model (GFS)48°31°2%
European model (ECMWF)47°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)47°27°0%
The average47°30°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 48°   Low 33°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°29°0%
US model (GFS)50°38°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°39°0%
Canadian model (GEM)47°26°0%
The average48°33°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.