Minority Report

Rison, AR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Cleveland County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 70°   Low 46°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—34°0%
US model (GFS)72°49°0%
European model (ECMWF)70°49°0%
German model (ICON)69°46°0%
Canadian model (GEM)70°52°0%
The average70°46°0%

Friday, November 13

High 56°   Low 36°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°30°0%
US model (GFS)56°39°0%
European model (ECMWF)55°39°0%
German model (ICON)55°34°0%
Canadian model (GEM)57°39°0%
The average56°36°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 54°   Low 33°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°33°1%
US model (GFS)56°31°0%
European model (ECMWF)53°35°0%
German model (ICON)54°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)53°34°0%
The average54°33°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 56°   Low 38°   Rain 33%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 33 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 52% against a group average of 33%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°35°27%
US model (GFS)60°40°21%
European model (ECMWF)54°38°45%
German model (ICON)57°37°52%
Canadian model (GEM)56°40°19%
The average56°38°33%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.