Minority Report

Riverhead, NY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Suffolk County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 58°   Low 47°   Rain 94%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 10 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—44°99%
US model (GFS)58°45°92%
European model (ECMWF)58°51°100%
German model (ICON)58°48°90%
Canadian model (GEM)58°48°90%
The average58°47°94%

Friday, November 13

High 49°   Low 39°   Rain 89%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 21 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 89%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°34°96%
US model (GFS)48°40°79%
European model (ECMWF)51°42°100%
German model (ICON)49°40°88%
Canadian model (GEM)50°40°83%
The average49°39°89%

Saturday, November 14

High 46°   Low 37°   Rain 18%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 30 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 35% against a group average of 18%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°34°5%
US model (GFS)45°38°8%
European model (ECMWF)47°40°24%
German model (ICON)46°38°35%
Canadian model (GEM)45°36°20%
The average46°37°18%

Sunday, November 15

High 48°   Low 40°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 6 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°36°0%
US model (GFS)47°41°1%
European model (ECMWF)48°42°6%
German model (ICON)49°40°0%
Canadian model (GEM)47°42°0%
The average48°40°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.