Minority Report

Robinson, IL — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Crawford County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 51°   Low 36°   Rain 36%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 62 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 72% against a group average of 36%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—34°10%
US model (GFS)51°36°15%
European model (ECMWF)51°37°72%
German model (ICON)52°36°40%
Canadian model (GEM)51°35°43%
The average51°36°36%

Friday, November 13

High 43°   Low 31°   Rain 7%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 7 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°28°9%
US model (GFS)41°31°3%
European model (ECMWF)44°34°10%
German model (ICON)45°33°8%
Canadian model (GEM)41°31°6%
The average43°31°7%

Saturday, November 14

High 49°   Low 28°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°26°0%
US model (GFS)49°28°1%
European model (ECMWF)51°31°0%
German model (ICON)49°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)49°25°0%
The average49°28°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 51°   Low 28°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°28°0%
US model (GFS)52°34°0%
European model (ECMWF)51°30°0%
German model (ICON)52°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)50°20°0%
The average51°28°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.