Minority Report

Rochester, IN — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Fulton County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 47°   Low 38°   Rain 54%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 32 points, 3 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 71% against a group average of 54%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—32°39%
US model (GFS)46°40°45%
European model (ECMWF)49°41°60%
Canadian model (GEM)46°40°71%
The average47°38°54%

Friday, November 13

High 43°   Low 31°   Rain 26%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 24 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 39% against a group average of 26%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°28°15%
US model (GFS)42°31°15%
European model (ECMWF)44°33°39%
Canadian model (GEM)42°33°33%
The average43°31°26%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 31°   Rain 21%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 13 points, 4 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°33°26%
US model (GFS)42°31°13%
European model (ECMWF)45°31°25%
Canadian model (GEM)47°28°19%
The average45°31°21%

Sunday, November 15

High 47°   Low 33°   Rain 10%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 16 points, 4 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°30°18%
US model (GFS)45°37°8%
European model (ECMWF)47°38°2%
Canadian model (GEM)46°28°11%
The average47°33°10%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.