Minority Report

Rogers City, MI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Presque Isle County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 43°   Low 36°   Rain 77%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 55 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 45% against a group average of 77%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—36°45%
US model (GFS)43°36°60%
European model (ECMWF)42°36°100%
German model (ICON)44°37°98%
Canadian model (GEM)43°36°82%
The average43°36°77%

Friday, November 13

High 39°   Low 35°   Rain 58%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 82 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 16% against a group average of 58%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service39°36°55%
US model (GFS)37°34°16%
European model (ECMWF)39°34°98%
German model (ICON)39°35°83%
Canadian model (GEM)40°36°38%
The average39°35°58%

Saturday, November 14

High 42°   Low 37°   Rain 31%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 73 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 78% against a group average of 31%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°36°5%
US model (GFS)42°37°7%
European model (ECMWF)41°36°78%
German model (ICON)43°37°53%
Canadian model (GEM)41°38°14%
The average42°37°31%

Sunday, November 15

High 41°   Low 34°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 3 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°34°0%
US model (GFS)41°36°3%
European model (ECMWF)42°30°1%
German model (ICON)42°34°3%
Canadian model (GEM)41°35°0%
The average41°34°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.