Minority Report

Rogersville, TN — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Hawkins County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 55°   Low 41°   Rain 74%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 79 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 21% against a group average of 74%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—37°21%
US model (GFS)54°40°58%
European model (ECMWF)56°43°100%
German model (ICON)54°44°95%
Canadian model (GEM)56°41°98%
The average55°41°74%

Friday, November 13

High 45°   Low 35°   Rain 55%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 59 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 93% against a group average of 55%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°31°47%
US model (GFS)44°35°34%
European model (ECMWF)44°37°93%
German model (ICON)46°38°48%
Canadian model (GEM)45°34°52%
The average45°35°55%

Saturday, November 14

High 44°   Low 29°   Rain 5%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 13 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°28°1%
US model (GFS)44°30°3%
European model (ECMWF)44°30°2%
German model (ICON)44°34°5%
Canadian model (GEM)44°24°14%
The average44°29°5%

Sunday, November 15

High 49°   Low 28°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°28°0%
US model (GFS)48°28°0%
European model (ECMWF)50°29°0%
German model (ICON)50°34°0%
Canadian model (GEM)50°20°0%
The average49°28°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.