Minority Report

Roseburg, OR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Douglas County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 62°   Low 46°   Rain 13%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 62 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 62% against a group average of 13%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service64°47°62%
US model (GFS)61°49°2%
European model (ECMWF)59°45°0%
German model (ICON)62°46°0%
Canadian model (GEM)62°45°0%
The average62°46°13%

Friday, November 13

High 58°   Low 47°   Rain 98%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 9 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°44°98%
US model (GFS)58°46°91%
European model (ECMWF)63°49°100%
German model (ICON)59°46°100%
Canadian model (GEM)55°49°100%
The average58°47°98%

Saturday, November 14

High 59°   Low 47°   Rain 73%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 10°, rain spread 64 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 33% against a group average of 73%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service59°46°97%
US model (GFS)52°46°69%
European model (ECMWF)63°49°76%
German model (ICON)61°49°33%
Canadian model (GEM)60°47°90%
The average59°47°73%

Sunday, November 15

High 56°   Low 42°   Rain 96%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 10°, rain spread 9 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°40°97%
US model (GFS)51°40°91%
European model (ECMWF)57°44°97%
German model (ICON)57°44°93%
Canadian model (GEM)60°40°100%
The average56°42°96%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.