Minority Report

Roswell, NM — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Chaves County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 69°   Low 39°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—39°0%
US model (GFS)69°41°0%
European model (ECMWF)68°40°0%
German model (ICON)68°40°0%
Canadian model (GEM)69°35°0%
The average69°39°0%

Friday, November 13

High 68°   Low 40°   Rain 54%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 52 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 86% against a group average of 54%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service69°49°34%
US model (GFS)69°41°62%
European model (ECMWF)66°40°86%
German model (ICON)66°38°48%
Canadian model (GEM)68°30°42%
The average68°40°54%

Saturday, November 14

High 66°   Low 48°   Rain 43%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 77 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 89% against a group average of 43%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service66°46°12%
US model (GFS)68°48°54%
European model (ECMWF)64°49°89%
German model (ICON)66°49°40%
Canadian model (GEM)66°46°20%
The average66°48°43%

Sunday, November 15

High 60°   Low 43°   Rain 3%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 9°, rain spread 10 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°42°0%
US model (GFS)64°50°0%
European model (ECMWF)55°45°7%
German model (ICON)62°43°10%
Canadian model (GEM)56°36°0%
The average60°43°3%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.