Minority Report

Rutland, VT — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Rutland County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 41°   Low 34°   Rain 94%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 20 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 80% against a group average of 94%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—28°80%
US model (GFS)40°35°89%
European model (ECMWF)40°36°100%
German model (ICON)41°35°100%
Canadian model (GEM)43°34°100%
The average41°34°94%

Friday, November 13

High 39°   Low 30°   Rain 71%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 60 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 39% against a group average of 71%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°22°39%
US model (GFS)38°31°45%
European model (ECMWF)40°32°99%
German model (ICON)37°32°78%
Canadian model (GEM)38°32°95%
The average39°30°71%

Saturday, November 14

High 40°   Low 30°   Rain 54%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 63 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 93% against a group average of 54%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°25°30%
US model (GFS)40°31°44%
European model (ECMWF)40°31°93%
German model (ICON)41°32°59%
Canadian model (GEM)38°33°43%
The average40°30°54%

Sunday, November 15

High 41°   Low 31°   Rain 43%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 31 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 59% against a group average of 43%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°25°28%
US model (GFS)39°30°44%
European model (ECMWF)41°34°51%
German model (ICON)41°34°59%
Canadian model (GEM)40°33°33%
The average41°31°43%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.