Minority Report

Safford, AZ — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Graham County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 75°   Low 48°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—51°1%
US model (GFS)76°51°0%
European model (ECMWF)74°53°0%
German model (ICON)75°47°0%
Canadian model (GEM)76°40°0%
The average75°48°0%

Friday, November 13

High 73°   Low 50°   Rain 48%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 60 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 81% against a group average of 48%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service74°48°21%
US model (GFS)77°51°29%
European model (ECMWF)72°54°71%
German model (ICON)71°50°40%
Canadian model (GEM)72°48°81%
The average73°50°48%

Saturday, November 14

High 65°   Low 47°   Rain 31%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 84 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 88% against a group average of 31%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service66°45°4%
US model (GFS)66°48°5%
European model (ECMWF)63°50°88%
German model (ICON)65°49°10%
Canadian model (GEM)65°44°46%
The average65°47°31%

Sunday, November 15

High 66°   Low 45°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 6 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service68°46°0%
US model (GFS)65°51°0%
European model (ECMWF)65°48°6%
German model (ICON)66°45°0%
Canadian model (GEM)64°36°0%
The average66°45°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.