Minority Report

Saguache, CO — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Saguache County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 54°   Low 27°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°0%
US model (GFS)55°28°0%
European model (ECMWF)52°31°0%
German model (ICON)55°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)52°21°0%
The average54°27°0%

Friday, November 13

High 50°   Low 28°   Rain 15%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 70 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 70% against a group average of 15%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°31°70%
US model (GFS)52°32°1%
European model (ECMWF)48°32°0%
German model (ICON)51°24°0%
Canadian model (GEM)47°22°5%
The average50°28°15%

Saturday, November 14

High 44°   Low 30°   Rain 64%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 38 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 38% against a group average of 64%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°29°76%
US model (GFS)43°29°72%
European model (ECMWF)43°34°74%
German model (ICON)46°30°38%
Canadian model (GEM)43°28°62%
The average44°30°64%

Sunday, November 15

High 47°   Low 29°   Rain 4%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 8 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°28°0%
US model (GFS)47°31°2%
European model (ECMWF)46°30°2%
German model (ICON)48°29°6%
Canadian model (GEM)47°26°8%
The average47°29°4%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.