Minority Report

Saint Helens, OR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Columbia County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 56°   Low 48°   Rain 12%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 0°, rain spread 55 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 55% against a group average of 12%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—48°55%
US model (GFS)56°48°3%
European model (ECMWF)57°48°0%
German model (ICON)56°48°0%
Canadian model (GEM)57°48°0%
The average56°48°12%

Friday, November 13

High 55°   Low 48°   Rain 91%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 24 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 76% against a group average of 91%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°48°97%
US model (GFS)53°46°80%
European model (ECMWF)56°50°100%
German model (ICON)56°49°100%
Canadian model (GEM)54°48°76%
The average55°48°91%

Saturday, November 14

High 56°   Low 48°   Rain 94%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 12 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°48°98%
US model (GFS)54°46°99%
European model (ECMWF)59°49°91%
German model (ICON)56°51°87%
Canadian model (GEM)55°49°95%
The average56°48°94%

Sunday, November 15

High 54°   Low 45°   Rain 99%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 3 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°43°97%
US model (GFS)52°44°99%
European model (ECMWF)55°46°100%
German model (ICON)53°47°100%
Canadian model (GEM)56°48°100%
The average54°45°99%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.