Minority Report

Saint Johns, AZ — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Apache County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 65°   Low 32°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 2 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—36°2%
US model (GFS)66°31°0%
European model (ECMWF)66°36°0%
German model (ICON)64°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)65°24°0%
The average65°32°0%

Friday, November 13

High 64°   Low 38°   Rain 31%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 33 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 11% against a group average of 31%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service65°39°44%
US model (GFS)65°38°11%
European model (ECMWF)63°45°27%
German model (ICON)64°38°43%
Canadian model (GEM)63°30°29%
The average64°38°31%

Saturday, November 14

High 54°   Low 36°   Rain 53%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 80 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 94% against a group average of 53%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°30°42%
US model (GFS)52°36°33%
European model (ECMWF)52°40°94%
German model (ICON)55°40°83%
Canadian model (GEM)54°34°14%
The average54°36°53%

Sunday, November 15

High 54°   Low 32°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 4 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°31°0%
US model (GFS)53°38°0%
European model (ECMWF)54°35°0%
German model (ICON)56°32°4%
Canadian model (GEM)52°22°0%
The average54°32°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.