Minority Report

Salem, IN — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Washington County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 53°   Low 39°   Rain 63%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 75 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 19% against a group average of 63%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—37°19%
US model (GFS)53°37°51%
European model (ECMWF)53°42°94%
German model (ICON)54°40°73%
Canadian model (GEM)54°39°76%
The average53°39°63%

Friday, November 13

High 45°   Low 34°   Rain 43%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 42 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 68% against a group average of 43%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°29°39%
US model (GFS)45°33°26%
European model (ECMWF)45°37°68%
German model (ICON)45°36°43%
Canadian model (GEM)45°35°39%
The average45°34°43%

Saturday, November 14

High 48°   Low 30°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°26°0%
US model (GFS)48°32°2%
European model (ECMWF)48°31°0%
German model (ICON)47°33°0%
Canadian model (GEM)47°27°0%
The average48°30°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 50°   Low 30°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°28°0%
US model (GFS)52°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)49°32°0%
German model (ICON)52°35°0%
Canadian model (GEM)48°24°0%
The average50°30°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.