Minority Report

Salem, NJ — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Salem County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 64°   Low 47°   Rain 77%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 55 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 45% against a group average of 77%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—39°51%
US model (GFS)65°49°45%
European model (ECMWF)64°50°100%
German model (ICON)61°51°100%
Canadian model (GEM)67°49°89%
The average64°47°77%

Friday, November 13

High 50°   Low 37°   Rain 78%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 36 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 98% against a group average of 78%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°33°62%
US model (GFS)50°36°70%
European model (ECMWF)50°38°98%
German model (ICON)51°40°80%
Canadian model (GEM)51°40°81%
The average50°37°78%

Saturday, November 14

High 47°   Low 37°   Rain 31%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 63 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 63% against a group average of 31%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°34°0%
US model (GFS)45°35°22%
European model (ECMWF)48°36°23%
German model (ICON)48°38°63%
Canadian model (GEM)46°39°47%
The average47°37°31%

Sunday, November 15

High 50°   Low 37°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°33°0%
US model (GFS)49°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)50°39°2%
German model (ICON)50°42°0%
Canadian model (GEM)51°37°0%
The average50°37°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.