Minority Report

Salem, OR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Marion County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 55°   Low 48°   Rain 15%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 72 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 72% against a group average of 15%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—46°72%
US model (GFS)54°49°3%
European model (ECMWF)55°49°0%
German model (ICON)56°48°0%
Canadian model (GEM)56°46°0%
The average55°48°15%

Friday, November 13

High 56°   Low 47°   Rain 91%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 24 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 76% against a group average of 91%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°47°98%
US model (GFS)54°46°83%
European model (ECMWF)58°47°100%
German model (ICON)58°48°100%
Canadian model (GEM)56°47°76%
The average56°47°91%

Saturday, November 14

High 59°   Low 49°   Rain 86%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 30 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 67% against a group average of 86%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service58°48°97%
US model (GFS)57°46°88%
European model (ECMWF)60°49°87%
German model (ICON)60°52°92%
Canadian model (GEM)59°50°67%
The average59°49°86%

Sunday, November 15

High 54°   Low 45°   Rain 94%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 12 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°43°97%
US model (GFS)53°43°88%
European model (ECMWF)55°46°97%
German model (ICON)54°46°100%
Canadian model (GEM)56°47°90%
The average54°45°94%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.