Minority Report

Salem, VA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Salem city.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 61°   Low 44°   Rain 30%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 53 points, 3 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 2% against a group average of 30%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—40°2%
US model (GFS)60°43°25%
German model (ICON)60°46°55%
Canadian model (GEM)64°47°38%
The average61°44°30%

Friday, November 13

High 51°   Low 37°   Rain 2%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 4 points, 4 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°32°3%
US model (GFS)50°36°4%
German model (ICON)50°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)52°42°0%
The average51°37°2%

Saturday, November 14

High 46°   Low 34°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 2 points, 4 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°31°1%
US model (GFS)46°33°2%
German model (ICON)45°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)47°34°0%
The average46°34°1%

Sunday, November 15

High 51°   Low 34°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°29°0%
US model (GFS)50°38°0%
German model (ICON)51°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)50°32°0%
The average51°34°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.