Minority Report

San Andreas, CA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Calaveras County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 78°   Low 51°   Rain 5%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 17 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 17% against a group average of 5%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—52°17%
US model (GFS)80°53°2%
European model (ECMWF)75°51°0%
German model (ICON)79°51°5%
Canadian model (GEM)78°50°2%
The average78°51°5%

Friday, November 13

High 62°   Low 48°   Rain 100%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°43°99%
US model (GFS)61°49°100%
European model (ECMWF)62°48°100%
German model (ICON)64°49°100%
Canadian model (GEM)60°50°100%
The average62°48°100%

Saturday, November 14

High 61°   Low 44°   Rain 29%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 55 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 58% against a group average of 29%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service62°43°3%
US model (GFS)60°48°14%
European model (ECMWF)60°43°23%
German model (ICON)61°43°58%
Canadian model (GEM)60°44°46%
The average61°44°29%

Sunday, November 15

High 63°   Low 45°   Rain 77%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 62 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 38% against a group average of 77%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service63°47°80%
US model (GFS)64°48°84%
European model (ECMWF)63°46°85%
German model (ICON)62°44°100%
Canadian model (GEM)62°42°38%
The average63°45°77%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.