Minority Report

San Francisco, CA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of San Francisco County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 70°   Low 54°   Rain 6%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 22 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 22% against a group average of 6%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—56°22%
US model (GFS)70°51°2%
European model (ECMWF)69°53°0%
German model (ICON)68°58°3%
Canadian model (GEM)71°53°2%
The average70°54°6%

Friday, November 13

High 62°   Low 54°   Rain 100%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service63°53°100%
US model (GFS)60°52°100%
European model (ECMWF)62°54°100%
German model (ICON)62°57°100%
Canadian model (GEM)62°55°100%
The average62°54°100%

Saturday, November 14

High 63°   Low 53°   Rain 27%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 7 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service65°54°28%
US model (GFS)63°53°31%
European model (ECMWF)63°52°29%
German model (ICON)63°56°25%
Canadian model (GEM)63°52°24%
The average63°53°27%

Sunday, November 15

High 63°   Low 54°   Rain 93%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 11 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service64°53°90%
US model (GFS)64°54°87%
European model (ECMWF)62°56°94%
German model (ICON)62°57°98%
Canadian model (GEM)65°52°95%
The average63°54°93%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.