Minority Report

San Germán Municipio, PR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of San Germán Municipio.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 90°   Low 75°   Rain 39%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 93 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 93% against a group average of 39%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—77°10%
US model (GFS)91°74°84%
European model (ECMWF)90°77°93%
German model (ICON)88°70°10%
Canadian model (GEM)90°76°0%
The average90°75°39%

Friday, November 13

High 89°   Low 79°   Rain 17%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 69 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 69% against a group average of 17%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service89°79°10%
US model (GFS)89°78°3%
European model (ECMWF)89°78°69%
German model (ICON)89°79°0%
Canadian model (GEM)90°79°5%
The average89°79°17%

Saturday, November 14

High 89°   Low 78°   Rain 24%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 96 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 96% against a group average of 24%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service90°76°20%
US model (GFS)89°78°6%
European model (ECMWF)88°76°96%
German model (ICON)88°80°0%
Canadian model (GEM)89°79°0%
The average89°78°24%

Sunday, November 15

High 90°   Low 74°   Rain 11%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 18 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 21% against a group average of 11%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service90°74°10%
US model (GFS)91°75°3%
European model (ECMWF)90°76°21%
German model (ICON)89°72°15%
Canadian model (GEM)90°74°5%
The average90°74°11%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.